Series
The Farm Decision Lab
What the research on judgment under uncertainty means for running a farm.
Some of what I draw on comes directly from agricultural research. A lot comes from adjacent fields, including medicine, aviation, and forecasting research. I'll always tell you which is which.
Topics
01Why Farming Is a Wicked Learning Environment, and What to Do About It
02The Three Kinds of Farm Decisions
03How to Run a Premortem Before Your Next Big Farm Investment
04The Farm Decision Journal
05When to Trust Your Gut on the Farm, and When Not To
06Why the Risk Statistics You're Given Are Harder to Use Than They Should Be
07Sunk Cost on the Farm
08How to Run a Family Farm Meeting That Actually Improves Decisions
Framework
The learning architecture
A four-step cycle for building a farm that actually teaches you something.
01
Micro-experiments
Apply the change to half the block, leave the other half alone.
›
02
Leading indicators
Watch soil moisture, pasture height, body condition, early pest counts.
›
03
Forecasts
Write down what you expect with a probability before the season.
›
04
After-action review
Compare prediction with outcome before planning next year.
Repeat each season. The value compounds.